Will Russia Join the West against China?

A Response to John Lonergan in ‘The Hill’

Alexander Raynor argues that a Chinese invasion of Siberia could shatter the fragile Sino-Russian axis, force Moscow to realign with the West, and inadvertently fulfill Guillaume Faye’s vision of a global bloc of White nations united against Beijing’s rising hegemony.

While John Lonergan's geopolitical analysis in The Hill demonstrates why China might pivot from Taiwan to target Siberian resources, his assessment overlooks a crucial geopolitical consequence: a Chinese invasion of Siberia could paradoxically accomplish what decades of Western diplomacy have failed to achieve: driving Russia decisively back into the arms of Europe and the United States.

The Enemy of My Enemy

The current Sino-Russian partnership, often described as having “no limits,” rests primarily on shared opposition to Western hegemony rather than genuine strategic alignment. This marriage of convenience has mainly endured because both nations face pressure from the same adversary, the United States. Citing a recent New York Times article, which leaked Russian intelligence documents show rising concerns over China, Lonergan proposes that China may transform from partner to predator, causing Moscow’s entire strategic calculus to undergo a seismic shift.

Given the current unpredictability of American foreign policy, a shift away from Taiwan may be prudent. Aggression against Taiwan may prompt a U.S. response, both militarily and economically. While Russia appears to be in control of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, it is also apparent that Russia is nowhere near as strong as it initially seemed to be. Russia has not delivered a lightning-fast victory in Ukraine, and the conflict continues to drag on with the renewed threat of American involvement in the conflict as President Trump promises weapon shipments to Ukraine. Currently, Russia is vulnerable.

A Chinese invasion of Siberia would represent an existential threat to Russian territorial integrity in a way that Western sanctions and diplomatic pressure never could. Unlike the proxy conflicts and economic competition that have defined recent East-West tensions, Chinese territorial aggression would strike at the very core of Russian national identity and survival. Faced with the loss of its resource-rich eastern territories — the economic lifeline that has sustained Russia through decades of international isolation — Moscow would have little choice but to seek powerful allies capable of matching Chinese military might.

The West as the Lesser Evil

From Russia’s perspective, the West suddenly becomes not the primary threat, but the potential savior. European nations and the United States, despite their current antagonisms with Russia, share a fundamental interest in preventing Chinese hegemony over Eurasian resources. The prospect of China controlling both its domestic energy reserves and Siberian oil and gas would create an energy monopoly that threatens Western economic security as much as Russian territorial integrity.

This convergence of interests could rapidly reshape decades of geopolitical alignment. Russia’s vast military-industrial complex, nuclear arsenal, and intimate knowledge of Chinese military capabilities would become invaluable assets to a Western alliance suddenly facing an expansionist China. Moscow’s energy resources — those not seized by China — would provide Europe with an alternative to Chinese-controlled supplies, while Russian territory could serve as a crucial buffer and staging ground for any coordinated response.

The Ukraine Precedent Reversed

The ongoing Ukraine conflict has demonstrated Russia’s willingness to expend enormous resources defending what it perceives as its sphere of influence. However, Siberia represents something far more fundamental than influence; it is core Russian territory containing most of the nation’s natural wealth. If Russia was willing to devastate its economy and international standing to prevent Ukraine’s integration into NATO, it would undoubtedly be prepared to make even greater sacrifices to avoid the actual loss of Siberian territory to China.

Moreover, unlike the Ukraine situation, where Russia is seen as the aggressor seeking to expand its geopolitical influence, a Chinese invasion would cast Russia as the victim of unprovoked territorial aggression. This role reversal could provide the moral and legal framework for Western nations to support Russia without appearing to reward previous Russian aggression elsewhere.

Strategic Implications for the West

Western policymakers should recognize the opportunity that Chinese aggression against Siberia would present. Rather than viewing this as a distant conflict between two authoritarian powers, the West should prepare for the possibility of a dramatically altered geopolitical landscape where Russia becomes a potential partner against Chinese expansion.

Such a partnership would not require the West to forgive or forget Russian actions in Ukraine, Georgia, or elsewhere. Instead, it would represent a pragmatic alliance born of shared immediate interests: preventing Chinese control over Eurasian energy resources and maintaining the balance of power that has underwritten global stability.

The precedent exists in history: the United States and Soviet Union set aside their ideological differences to counter Nazi Germany, despite Stalin’s previous aggression and authoritarian rule. Similarly, Chinese territorial expansion could create the external pressure necessary to forge a new, if limited, Russian-Western alliance.

Control over Siberian resources represents more than economic advantage; it constitutes geopolitical dominance. China’s current energy dependence forces it to maintain relationships with multiple suppliers and transport routes vulnerable to interdiction. Siberian conquest would eliminate this vulnerability while simultaneously depriving the West of a major energy supplier and Russia of its primary source of foreign currency.

For Russia, losing Siberia would mean economic collapse and a reduction to a second-tier power. For the West, Chinese control over both domestic and Siberian energy would create dangerous dependence and vulnerability. These shared interests in preventing Chinese resource dominance could override the current antagonisms that divide Russia from the West.

Guillaume Faye’s Vision Realized

In his work Archeofuturism, Guillaume Faye proposed the idea of a new geopolitical bloc, where Europe and Russia would be united in a federation, which he called “Eurosiberia.” The scenario laid out by Lonergan would create a much different dynamic: an American-led coalition with Europe to rescue Russia from Chinese aggression. Faye had another vision for the European world that more closely resembles this scenario. In his work A Global Coup, Faye lays out a global European alliance comprising the USA, Europe, Russia, and other European countries worldwide, which he dubs “Septentrion.” He envisions this alliance as the culmination of the Eurosiberian project. Could such an act of Chinese aggression against Russia truly unite the European world?

Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin envisions a new Russian empire in which the entire Eurasian continent would be incorporated into the Russian sphere of influence, forming a counter-hegemon to the United States. He believes that Russia has a unique role to play in history and is distinct from Europe, thus having its own particular idea of what Russia is. To Professor Dugin, a conundrum lies in the question of Russian identity: “Is Russia European?” However, the question “Is Russia Oriental?” is never pondered because to do so would be considered preposterous. While Lonergan’s proposed scenario is highly unlikely to occur, I challenge Professor Dugin to consider the possibility that it could happen and to envision a significantly different geopolitical vision for Russia: one in which Russia and the West are united.

Lonergan's analysis correctly identifies the strategic logic behind a potential Chinese pivot toward Siberia. However, Beijing’s planners may be underestimating the broader geopolitical consequences of such aggression. By threatening Russian territorial integrity, China could inadvertently achieve what Western diplomacy has failed to accomplish: breaking the Sino-Russian alliance and driving Moscow back toward European and American partnership.

The supreme irony would be if China’s attempt to secure resources through territorial expansion ultimately forged the very coalition capable of denying it those resources. In seeking to avoid the complications of a Taiwan invasion, China might instead trigger the creation of a Russo-Western alliance that would pose a far greater long-term threat to Chinese ambitions for a Sino-dominated world.