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kh1h's avatar

I realize I’m in the minority, but I believe the anti-Israel alliance tends to suffer from excessive over-optimism across the board.

While it’s clear that Israel’s current war is not proceeding as planned, it would be a mistake—perhaps even wishful thinking—to suggest that Israel is on the verge of collapse. In reality, Israel is likely to continue its military campaign with the complete destruction of northern Gaza, resulting in the loss of many more lives, while establishing a heavily militarized zone. Although Israel will likely delay the use of private military contractors and the establishment of biometric-controlled humanitarian areas, this won’t change the broader trajectory. The endgame is not merely a divided Gaza but, rather, an ethnically cleansed one. Everything the Zionists do will pivot off of this idea.

That said, it’s becoming apparent to Israel that global support has begun to wane. The compromise, if one emerges, may involve southern Gaza becoming overcrowded with hundreds of thousands of additional refugees, while Israel strategically shifts the financial and logistical responsibility for humanitarian aid and rebuilding onto the international community. Hamas will not be fully defeated, nor will the idea of resistance. However, the flow of aid will come with conditions, one of which will be Hamas stepping back or conceding some authority, particularly when it comes to the governance of southern Gaza.

In Lebanon, Israel is likely to continue using a long-term aerial and drone warfare strategy, similar to what the U.S. employed in Afghanistan. International law will be further eroded as Lebanon’s economic and infrastructure collapse weakens Hezbollah over time. While the Israeli ground forces—often criticized for lacking tactical sophistication and military acumen (and even bravery) —may face challenges in Lebanon, we can expect the demilitarized zone to extend deeper into southern Lebanese territory. Iran, for the most part, may maintain a cautious stance, although a periodic tit-for-tat exchange of hostilities remains a possibility.

For Europe and the United States, this trajectory does not bode well. They will bear the brunt of Israel’s aggressive actions. The U.S., in particular, will bankroll much of this conflict, and as Chris Hedges has noted, it is the American empire that may emerge as the real loser.

Will Israel collapse in its current form? It’s possible, but we can expect a few more years of intense chaos and conflict as Israel continues to push forward its Greater Israel project. Trump and Harris, both throughly infested, comprised and manipulated by the fanatical Zionist lobby, will acquiesce to Israeli demands at every turn. Western media, almost entirely owned and manipulated by Zionist Jews, will continue to misreport and obfuscate the facts on the ground. This is a grim assessment, but it is essential to remain pragmatic and clear-eyed when looking ahead.

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