Escalation in the Ukraine War: From Biden’s Orders to Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine

by Nabil Ariaye

Nabil Ariya discusses the escalating tensions in the Ukraine conflict and the threat of nuclear war.

In the final days of Joe Biden’s presidency, a risky and contentious decision left the world in shock. Biden granted Ukraine permission to use American long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. This move came just fifty days before the transfer of power to the Republican president-elect. Many political and military analysts interpreted this decision as a global crisis catalyst, aimed at challenging the position of the incoming president, Donald Trump, in dealing with Vladimir Putin.

Dimensions of the Decision and Reactions

International experts viewed Biden’s move as reckless and perhaps even deliberate in escalating tensions. Michael Waltz, Trump’s incoming National Security Advisor, called the decision a sign of intensifying conflict in the Ukraine war, warning of its unpredictable consequences.

Operationally, the incident also sparked controversy. Following Biden’s directive, Ukraine launched six ATACMS long-range missiles at Russian military facilities in Bryansk. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that five missiles were intercepted by S-400 and Pantsir defense systems, with one missile causing minor fires in the area but resulting in no major casualties or damage.

Developments in Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine

Russia’s response to these attacks came in the form of an updated nuclear deterrence doctrine. During a Russian Security Council meeting, Vladimir Putin approved a new doctrine designed to address emerging threats. Influenced by Ukraine’s long-range attacks and President Zelensky’s appeals to the U.S. and U.K., this doctrine allows Russia to use weapons of mass destruction in the event of missile strikes on its territory.

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, stated, “The firing of NATO missiles at Russia constitutes a direct attack by this military bloc and could provoke nuclear responses.”

This shift starkly highlights the potential risk of a third world war. Moscow has declared its readiness to respond with full force to any provocations, issuing an explicit warning to Ukraine and NATO members.

Ukraine and U.S. Policies: Risks and Implications

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Defense announced a $100-million budget allocation for repairing and servicing American weapons supplied to Ukraine. This decision is seen as the most significant step toward intensifying the war. Russia had previously warned that such actions would push the country into direct confrontation with NATO.

Recent Ukrainian statements about aiming for a complete Russian defeat appear to border on political posturing. As the nation possessing the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, Russia will not remain indifferent to direct threats. Zelensky and his Western allies seem to underestimate — or dismiss — the risks of nuclear war. However, the reality is that such an approach could have catastrophic consequences for the entire world.

Conclusion

The U.S. decision to authorize long-range attacks on Russian territory marks the beginning of a new and dangerously volatile phase in the Ukraine war. These actions not only pose a direct threat to global security but also increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict.

In a world where major powers continue arms races and adopt aggressive rhetoric, international institutions must act decisively to prevent further escalation. The future of global stability hinges on leaders’ ability to avert further tensions and prioritize diplomatic resolutions to this crisis.